Credit & UnderwritingARVLetter A

After Repair Value (ARV) & The 70% Rule

The projected fair market value of a distressed real estate property after all planned renovations and structural upgrades have been completed.

Overview & Practical Application

After Repair Value (ARV) is the cornerstone valuation metric for value-add real estate investors, house flippers, and hard money underwriters. It represents the estimated market price a property will command once its full scope of work (SOW) — such as kitchen/bath remodeling, roof replacement, HVAC modernization, and cosmetic finishes — is completed to neighborhood standards.

Appraisers and investors establish ARV by analyzing renovated comparable sales ("comps"): nearby properties of matching square footage, bed/bath count, and lot size that have sold in turnkey condition within the past 90 to 180 days.

To protect against market shifts, closing costs, and contractor budget overruns, disciplined investors underwrite acquisitions using The 70% ARV Rule: never paying more than 70% of the projected ARV minus estimated renovation costs.

Mathematical Formula & Calculation

Maximum Allowable Offer (MAO) = (After Repair Value (ARV) * 0.70) - Estimated Rehabilitation Costs

The classic 70% Rule underwriting formula that leaves a 30% gross margin to cover financing costs, closing fees, agent commissions (~10%-12%), and net investor profit (~18%-20%).

Variable Definitions:

  • ARV=Projected post-renovation market value based on turnkey comparable sales
  • 0.70=70% acquisition ceiling factor
  • Estimated Rehabilitation Costs=Full contractor budget including a 10%–15% contingency reserve

Real-World Underwriting Example

Scenario: Turnkey renovated homes in a neighborhood sell for $450,000 (ARV). A distressed home requires $65,000 in renovations.

Calculation:
70% of ARV = $450,000 * 0.70 = $315,000.
Maximum Allowable Offer (MAO) = $315,000 - $65,000 = $250,000.

Takeaway: To maintain a safe profit and carrying-cost margin, the investor should acquire the distressed property for no more than $250,000.

Key Underwriting Takeaways

  • Hard money lenders typically cap total loan proceeds (purchase + rehab draws) at 65% to 75% of verified ARV.
  • In the BRRRR strategy, achieving an All-In Cost at ≤ 75% of ARV allows the investor to pull 100% of their initial cash back out via a 75% LTV cash-out refinance.
  • Overestimating ARV by cherry-picking superior comps is the #1 cause of losses in residential fix-and-flip projects.

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